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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 63

Chicago Bears 10 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 19-T.Taylor punts 53 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-S.Daly. 82-S.Sims to HOU 10 for no gain (39-J.Blackwell).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.11 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP