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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 29

Houston Texans 10 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 15-K.Fairbairn 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.33 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 29, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 39, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP