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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 69

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(2:01) 13-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to PHI 25, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 69, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 27, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model