4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 11

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Atlanta Falcons 9

What Actually Happened

(4:31) 4-J.Elliott 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.17 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model