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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 16

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(10:16) 6-Y.Koo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.79 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model