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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 41

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(8:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right guard to ATL 18 for 23 yards (20-D.Alford). PENALTY on PHI-1-J.Hurts, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.56 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 41, worth -1.77 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model