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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 29

Washington Commanders 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(:21) 3-C.York 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.12 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP