4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 4-C.McLaughlin 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.26 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 16, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model