Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 17 at the 77

Washington Commanders 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

(9:41) 10-T.Way punts 54 yards to TB 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-T.Palmer pushed ob at TB 38 for 15 yards (26-J.McNichols).

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.69 EP
74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model