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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 65

Washington Commanders 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 10-T.Way punts 41 yards to TB 24, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-32-M.Walker.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.60 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model