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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 38

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 4-C.McLaughlin 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +4.03 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 38, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 47, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP