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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 11

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(:20) 4-C.McLaughlin 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.99 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.19 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model