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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 41

Chicago Bears 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:17) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 13-K.Allen to TEN 36 for 5 yards (38-L.Sneed).

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.68 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -1.69 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model