Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 60

Tennessee Titans 17 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(1:15) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Johnson [95-D.Walker] at CHI 31. 1-J.Johnson to CHI 40 for 9 yards (85-C.Okonkwo).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP

What Happened

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.52 EP
67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 60, worth -1.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model