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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 17 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(3:57) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 59 yards to CHI 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-D.Carter to CHI 24 for 13 yards (85-C.Okonkwo).

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.24 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 70, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 28, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP