Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 67

Tennessee Titans 17 – Chicago Bears 3

(9:14) 4-R.Stonehouse punt is BLOCKED by 92-D.Hardy, Center-46-M.Cox, RECOVERED by CHI-36-J.Owens at TEN 21. 36-J.Owens for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.65 EP
72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 67, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model