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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 25

Chicago Bears 0 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 24-K.Herbert left tackle to TEN 21 for 4 yards (58-H.Landry; 53-E.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.31 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model