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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 35

Tennessee Titans 10 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(7:36) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left to 83-T.Boyd to CHI 32 for 3 yards (9-J.Brisker; 29-T.Stevenson).

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.79 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.98 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model