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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 77

Tennessee Titans 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(14:06) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 50 yards to CHI 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-D.Carter ran ob at CHI 43 for 16 yards (50-J.Gibbens).

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.13 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 77, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 34, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model