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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 33

San Francisco 49ers 3 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 4-J.Moody 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.52 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 33, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model