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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 50

New York Jets 13 – San Francisco 49ers 29

What Actually Happened

(7:26) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 5-G.Wilson (22-I.Yiadom).

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.33 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model