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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 5

San Francisco 49ers 26 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 4-J.Moody 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +3.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.80 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 5, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.04 EP