Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 70

New York Jets 7 – San Francisco 49ers 6

(12:54) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to SF 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Cowing to SF 33 for 8 yards (55-C.Surratt).

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.85 EP
69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model