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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 35

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(4:27) 11-C.Dicker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.11 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model