4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 43

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 6-A.Cole punts 35 yards to LAC 8, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.96 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.96 EP