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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 70

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to LAC 13, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.96 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP