4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 14

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(10:33) 2-D.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +3.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.01 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.65 EP