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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 31

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 9

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 2-D.Carlson 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.29 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model