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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 49

Los Angeles Chargers 9 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.01 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model