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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 6

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 11-C.Dicker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.73 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 6, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model