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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 49

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:51) 16-J.Scott punts 28 yards to LV 21, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.50 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model