4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 7

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(:29) 11-C.Dicker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.23 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 7, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model