Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 83

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

(2:18) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to LV 27, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Tucker to LV 34 for 7 yards (33-D.Leonard).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.90 EP
52% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 83, worth -4.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model