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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 83

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to LAC 31, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.56 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.35 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 41, worth -2.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP