4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 7

Detroit Lions 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 39-J.Bates 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 7, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP