Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 78

Los Angeles Rams 20 – Detroit Lions 17

(2:21) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to DET 28, Center-47-A.Ward. 11-K.Raymond to DET 31 for 3 yards (88-J.Whittington).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.30 EP
59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 78, worth -3.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model