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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 61

Detroit Lions 17 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to LA 16, Center-49-H.Hatten. 23-K.Williams to LA 16 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.12 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 61, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 20, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP