4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 29

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(5:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 15-D.Robinson to DET 15 for 14 yards (31-K.Joseph). DET-0-T.Arnold was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.29 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 29, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 39, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model