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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 23

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(6:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 10-C.Kupp [92-M.Davenport].

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.50 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 23, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.22 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 33, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model