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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 73

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 42-E.Evans punts 48 yards to DET 25, Center-47-A.Ward. 11-K.Raymond to DET 36 for 11 yards (56-C.Rozeboom; 20-R.Rivers).

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.83 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 73, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 31, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model