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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 13

Green Bay Packers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(8:30) 44-B.Narveson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.22 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 13, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 23, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP