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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 8

Green Bay Packers 26 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

What Actually Happened

(7:56) 44-B.Narveson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.07 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 8, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP