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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 25

Green Bay Packers 26 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

What Actually Happened

(:21) 44-B.Narveson 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.93 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 35, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model