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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 43

Green Bay Packers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 19-D.Whelan punts 33 yards to PHI 10, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.65 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.01 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.20 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP