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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 16 at the 20

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Green Bay Packers 19

What Actually Happened

(:04) 4-J.Elliott 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +3.32 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.05 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model