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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 68

Cleveland Browns 3 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to DAL 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-31-M.Ford.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 26, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model