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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 29

Cleveland Browns 10 – Dallas Cowboys 33

What Actually Happened

(3:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 20-P.Strong right guard to DAL 23 for 6 yards (11-M.Parsons, 28-M.Hooker).

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.77 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 29, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 39, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model