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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 44

Cleveland Browns 10 – Dallas Cowboys 33

What Actually Happened

(4:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end to DAL 38 for 6 yards (18-D.Clark).

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.98 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -1.98 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model