Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 73

Dallas Cowboys 33 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 5-B.Anger punts 59 yards to CLE 14, Center-44-T.Sieg. 16-J.Darden to CLE 31 for 17 yards (14-M.Bell). PENALTY on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 31.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.67 EP
53% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 73, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model