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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 28

Dallas Cowboys 30 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 17-B.Aubrey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.73 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 28, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 38, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model